OVERCONFIDENCE

It is crucial that a poker player has the confidence to make the right plays at the right time without fear of loss. The problem of overconfidence is derived from a level of confidence that is out of sync with ability. When a player is drastically overestimating their advantage they can often allow bad plays to creep into their game whilst still maintaining the confidence that they are playing well or optimally. Once this belief has been internalised, losses are put down to bad luck rather than bad play, and positive results are attributed to superior skill.  Overconfidence has essentially given rise to a style of play that has a long term negative expected value. 

When the cards are hitting and the moves are working it is a natural response for a player to overestimate the edge they have over their opponents. Rather than realizing that their results are at least in part down to a good run of cards, players begin to chalk down their results to outplaying opponents. This often leads players to play too many hands in the belief that they will be able to outplay their opponents after the flop. The problem comes when the post flop play can no longer compensate for the weak holdings you are entering the pot with. A player may fail to make the connection that they are winning in spite of their loose play rather than because of it.

Once a player is stuck in the mindset that playing loosely is a winning strategy their play tends to reflect that when things aren't going so well. Rather than analysing the situation rationally, such as considering the importance of table image after losing a few big pots, the response is to try and bully opponents out of every pot. They may begin to try elaborate moves that worked when they were winning but are now becoming more and more desperate. Good opponents will cotton on very quickly to this type of play and will adjust their strategies accordingly. Once a player is perceived to be on tilt, loose aggressive play tends to be at its most destructive.  Couple this with playing when tired, frustrated, or stuck, and overconfidence can lead players to believe they can beat a game even when their own game is off. 

After a long winning streak the brain has become conditioned to win so finds it more difficult to cope with sudden or extreme loss. This means a player on a winning streak is often the most psychologically vulnerable to a sharp downswing.  The shock and resulting emotional response can lead to a dangerous form of tilt where you are drastically overestimating your edge whilst simultaneously playing without using your head. The loose and unconventional style of play that served well when things were good now becomes a major problem. Because the player is used to winning with this style, they fail to adjust their games to the new table conditions.  

Always try and maintain the style of poker you know works. Be aware of any changes that creep into your game when you hit a hot streak. Poker analysis tools are very useful and can highlight potential deficiencies and leaks in your game.

During and after large upswings be aware that you are potentially more vulnerable to tilt when things start to go wrong. A downswing is always just around the corner however well you may feel you are playing, so be mindful of how you are going to deal with it when it happens.

Even if you think you have a large advantage over your opponents, playing whilst tired, frustrated, or simply trying to get even, can result in not only the loss of the edge but in the transfer of the advantage to an opponent.

Be constantly aware of your table image. Moves that may have worked when you were running well will meet a different response if you are constantly showing down the worst hands. Under these conditions it will be much more difficult to bet people off the best hands. Attempting a bluff that may have positive expectation with a good table image, will have the opposite long term results with a bad image.  

As well as recognising and dealing with your own deficiencies as a result of overconfidence, it is also important to understand and use your knowledge of the tendencies of overconfidence against other players. Weak players who have just won a large pot may begin to believe their own hype and loosen up a lot. Other players who have won a lot in a session may start overplaying hands and chasing draws as they feel invincible. Knowing how these processes work and how to spot them is a valuable tool in the arsenal of a poker player.

As we have seen players high on confidence tend to play more hands, more aggressively, and sometimes more unconventionally. Try to work out strategies for combating these styles of play. If a player is constantly raising without the goods, put pressure on them by reraising and playing back at them.